[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 September 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 SEPTEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (06 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    178   183   192   206   221   216   212
AFr       6    24    19     7    14    16 ( 13)
Aaus     10    29    14     6    19    18 ( 11)
T       141   136   105   149   146   114   124

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption observed later in day.


07 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1637UT on 07 Sep.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
      Spread F observed.

08 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0143UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F and absorption observed.

09 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/2N at 1752UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


10 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1456UT
Geomagnetic:  Active to minor storm periods local night hours. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30%, becoming depressed 15%
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


11 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/2B at 0735UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread F and absorption observed.


12 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced 25-50%
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Some Southern Region sites depressed 15% 
      during local day yesterday.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Some spread F observed, mildly depressed.


 
2. FORECAST (13 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Moderate, chance of high activity due to large 
       solar region.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals 
	      possible early in week. Chance of mass ejection
	      induced activity this week, if large solar region
	      becomes active.

Frequencies:  MUFs to 15% above normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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