[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 OCTOBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (27 SEPTEMBER - 03 OCTOBER)
Date     27    28    29    30    01    02    03
10cm    152   149   138   140   140   136   146
AFr       4     5     3    21    30    31 ( 25)
Aaus      4     6     4    22    33    19 ( 26)
T       138   149   152   142   115    82   117

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1312UT, and an M1/SF at 1942UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


28 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


29 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/2N at 0639UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
10 to 30% above predicted monthly values


30 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1B at 0150UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
              A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
              data at 0817UT on 30 Sep.
Frequencies:  
slightly above predicted monthly values


01 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% during UT day.


02 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to minor storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by greater than 30% at times during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day.


03 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M2/1N at 0221UT 
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
              A weak (21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
              data at 0644UT on 03 Oct.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-30% over UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (04 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Initially unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
periods. Quiet to unsettled with active intervals possible during the 
second half of the forecast period.

Frequencies:  Possible MUF depressions of 10-30% early in the forecast 
period. Returning to normal to enhanced conditions for the second 
half of the period.
SWFs possible early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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