[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (08 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 08 NOVEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (01 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER)
Date     01    02    03    04    05    06    07
10cm    162   165   169   177   183   185   190
AFr       5    13    15    11    15    12 ( 12)
Aaus      7    19    22    16    21    14 ( 11)
T       103   173   113   100   132   135   144

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

01 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


02 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


03 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1403UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted montly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


04 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


05 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


06 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with storm periods observed 
              at high latitudes. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
      15-30% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.


07 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


 
2. FORECAST (08 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  
	8-10 Nov: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
	11-12 Nov: Unsettled to active with possible storm periods at high latitiudes.
	13-14 Nov: Declining to mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

Frequencies:  
	8-10 Nov: Near predicted monthly values to enhaced.
	11-13 Nov: Near predicted monthly values to depressed 5-15% at times.
	14 Nov: Returning to near predicted monthly values.
	SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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