[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 May 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 MAY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (17 MAY - 23 MAY)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm    157   163   171   171   186   181   180
AFr       4    15     8     8    12    10 ( 45)
Aaus      4    10     7     9     6     7 ( 42)
T       120   120   142   123   125   127   123

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0123UT, an M1 at 0754UT, and an M2/SF at
1608UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced upto 40%.


18 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 2009UT on 18
May.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


19 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


20 May 
Solar:        high, with an M4 at 1029UT, an M5.0 at 1053UT, and an X2.1/2N at
1527UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0341UT on 20
May.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed Antarctic region.


21 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/2F at 2139UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


22 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values


23 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
A weak (36nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1051UT on 23
May, and a moderate (56nT) impulse was observed at 1544UT on 23 May.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


 
2. FORECAST (24 MAY - 30 MAY)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly active with possibility of minor storm
	periods early in the week. Expected to come down to 
	unsettled to quiet level by the middle of the week 
	and stay quiet after that.

Frequencies:  depressions of upto approximately 15% on 24-May,
	 mildy depressed after local dawn on 25-May, otherwise
	 MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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