[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (19 July 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 19 JULY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (12 JULY - 18 JULY)
Date     12    13    14    15    16    17    18
10cm    133   135   144   160   172   180   181
AFr      12     5     1     5     9    15 (  8)
Aaus     14     5     2     4     8    17 (  6)
T       104    85    91    82    94   104   101

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

12 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


13 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/2F at 0008UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


14 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


15 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an X3.0/3B at 2008UT, and an M1 at 2132UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.


16 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


17 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an M8.5/1B at 0713UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (32nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1604UT
on 17 July.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


18 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an M2/SB at 0337UT and a X1/2B at 0744UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater
      than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Degraded due to PCA event to near predicted monthly
      values.


 
2. FORECAST (19 JULY - 25 JULY)
Solar: Moderate to high.

Geomagnetic: Quiet to unsettled for 19 July, active to minor storm and possible
major storm levels for 20-21 July due to recent CME activity. Activity declining
for 22-25 July.

Frequencies:  Depressed 15-20% at times on 20-21 July, otherwise MUFs near normal.
SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060