[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (11 January 02)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 11 JANUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (04 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY)
Date     04    05    06    07    08    09    10
10cm    218   212   197   189   199   229   225
AFr       4     2     3     8     6     2 ( 15)
Aaus      5     3     5    11    19     6 ( 26)
T       168   171   194   172   162   188   169

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

04 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1749UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

05 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1840UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event ended 0130UT on 05 Jan.
      (Event began 30 Dec 01 at 2125UT).

06 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

07 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

08 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
              Mild activity appears associated with southward 
              interplanetray magnetic field for much of the day.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M1/1F at 1113UT, and an M9.5/2B at 1801UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

10 Jan 
Solar:        low
              10Mev Proton event began 2055UT 10 Jan, and is in progress.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled first half of UT day. Active with
              isolated major Storm period second half of UT day.
A weak (44nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1619UT on 10
Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

COMMENT: Impulse on 10 Jan possible glancing blow from CME
behind east limb on 08 Jan.

 
2. FORECAST (11 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY)
Solar: Moderate to high. Solar region 9773 (N14W05) still has good
       flare potential. Region 9778 (S17E45) is showing growth 
       and two previously M flare producing regions are due 
       back to the north and south east limb of the sun around 11 Jan.

Geomagnetic:  Active 11-13 Jan due to coronal hole. Chance isolated
       minor storm period in this interval. Otherwise quiet to
       unsettled, until 17 Jan, when recurrence suggests mild
       activity is possible.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% after local dawn on 11-13 Jan in association
       with forecast coronl hole induced geomagnetic activity.
       MUFs are then expected to return to recent enhanced levels.
       SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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