[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 Januray 02)

Fri Jan 4 12:14:02 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 JANUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1A. SUMMARY (21 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER)
Date     21    22    23    24    25    26    27
10cm    234   243   255   275   259   268   275
AFr       9     6     5    13    11    10    10
Aaus     13     9     8    26    13     8     8 
T       166   130   150   137    98   130   155

21 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near normal  predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2336UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

24 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0032UT, an M3 at 1400UT, and an M1/1F
at 2241UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

25 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0708UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an M7.1/1B at 0540UT, an M1/1F at 1226UT, an M1/SF at
1718UT, and an M1/SF at 2115UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn, then recovering.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

27 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an  M2/2N at 1648UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

COMMENT:Unexpected geomagnetic activity on 24 Dec caused lower
than usual MUFs on 25 Dec.

1B. SUMMARY (28 DECEMBER - 03 JANUARY)
Date     28    29    30    31    01    02    03
10cm    263   264   247   246   232   231   220
AFr       9    13    15    12     4     7 (  4)
Aaus     13    27    29    17    13    11 (  6)
T       166   165   126   109   140   150   170

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

28 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an M4/SF at 0351UT, an M1/SF at 1230UT, and an X3.4 at
2045UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
              15% above predicted monthly values

29 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an M2 at 0411UT, an M1/1F at 0545UT, an M1 at 0916UT,
an M9.3/SF at 0945UT, an M1/SF at 1157UT, an M3 at 1647UT, an M1 at 2127UT, and
an M2/1F at 2256UT.
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
A moderate (78nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0539UT on
29 Dec.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

30 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

31 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

01 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

02 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1252UT, and an M1 at 2148UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near normal to 20 % enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near normal to 20% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

03 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near normal to 15% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near normal to 30% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions observed on 29 and 30 Dec.

2. FORECAST (04 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY)
Solar: Moderate, isolated M class flares.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible 06 Jan.

Frequencies: MUFs are expected to be enhanced 10-20% for much of the
week. Isolated SWFs probable on daylight HF circuits.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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