[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 February 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 FEBRUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (15 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    195   194   197   193   189   193   201
AFr       3     2     6     6     4     6 (  8)
Aaus      4     4    17    12    11     8 ( 10)
T       176   188   157   127   135   161   159

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15 local day.
      Enhanced 65% local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

16 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

17 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2115UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% local day.
      Enhanced by 15% local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Feb 
Solar:        high, with an M4/SF at 0251UT, an M5.1/1N at 0612UT, an M4/SF at
0959UT, an M3/SF at 1711UT, and an M2/1B at 2107UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

21 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M3/-- at 1226UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (22 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Moderate declining to low-moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals expected.

Frequencies:  slightly depressed on 23-Feb,  otherwise MUFs
near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
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