[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (08 February 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 08 FEBRUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (01 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)
Date     01    02    03    04    05    06    07
10cm    246   241   233   235   221   203   192
AFr      11    14     6     8    15    13 ( 15)
Aaus     15    17     8     8    21    22 ( 13)
T       127   141   126   163   150   130   147

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

01 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.


02 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed up to 15% at times since local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.


03 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


04 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2 at 0602UT, an M1 at 0658UT, and an M1/SF at
2330UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


05 Feb 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed approximately 15% at times since local
      dawn, otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.


06 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1132UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


07 Feb 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (08 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Moderate to high

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Minor storm intervals possible.

Frequencies:  depressed 30% on 13-Feb,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs
probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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