[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 December 02)

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 20 12:15:27 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 DECEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (13 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    167   186   203   203   213   197   193
AFr       2     9     5     3     2     2 ( 20)
Aaus      4    13    10     7     6     7 ( 31)
T       155   129   100   145   156   152   153

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% .
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25% .
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

14 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1115UT, an 
M1/1N at 2255UT, and an M1/SF at 2336UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

17 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2335UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

18 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0642UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M2.8 at 2150UT 
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Mass ejection observed with M2.8 flare.
 
2. FORECAST (20 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled to active with minor storm levels possible
local night hours on 20 Dec. The field is expected to then decline before
returning to storm levels on 22 Dec due to M2.8/CME on 19 Dec.Disturbed
conditions may extend first half 23 Dec.  The field is then expected to 
be at unsettled levels from mid 23 to 27 Dec. A weak coronal hole
signature may cause activer periods 28-29 Dec.
Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 20-Dec, 
depressed 30% on late 22-Dec, depressed 15 to 20% on 23-Dec, then
near normal. Mildy depressed conditions may be experienced 29 Dec.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



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