[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (06 December 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 DECEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (29 NOVEMBER - 05 DECEMBER)
Date     29    30    01    02    03    04    05
10cm    141   146   150   146   146   149   149
AFr       9    14    16     9     7     7 (  9)
Aaus     14    14    18    13    12    13 (  7)
T       117   114    90   105   112   130   122

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

29 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions.


30 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
              periods 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of
      depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions.


01 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with
      short periods of depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


02 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of minor depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions upto approximately 15%.


03 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


04 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/2N at 2249UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   5 to 10% above predicted monthly values


05 Dec 
Solar:        Low 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   5 to 10% above predicted monthly values


 
2. FORECAST (06 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER)
Solar:        Low to moderate. Increased flare activity possible later in
              in the week.	

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible.
              Coronal hole influence expected within the next few days.

Frequencies:  Depressed 15 to 20% on 08-10 Dec due to expected coronal hole
	      effects, otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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