[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (02 August 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 02 AUGUST 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (26 JULY - 01 AUGUST)
Date     26    27    28    29    30    31    01
10cm    242   231   239   234   227   209   193
AFr      10    11     9     9     5     6 ( 17)
Aaus     11    12     8     8     7     7 ( 17)
T       130   121   135   123   128   127   126

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

26 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an M4/1N at 0010UT, an M1/SN at 
              0642UT, an M1/SN at 0829UT, an M1/SF at 
	      1903UT, an M8.7 at 2112UT, an M5.3 at 2217UT, 
	      and an M4 at 2238UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

27 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 0035UT, 
              and an M2 at 2312UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0023UT, an M4 
              at 0238UT, and an M4 at 1044UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
              A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the 
	      IPS magnetomter data at 1322UT on 29 Jul.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 55% with short periods 
      of minor depressions.

31 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SB at 0153UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with
      periods of depressions. 

01 Aug 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
              A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the 
	      IPS magnetomter data at 0511UT on 01 Aug.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions.

2. FORECAST (02 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled to Active with isolated 
	      periods of minor storm levels possible.

Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 02-Aug,  
	      otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable 
	      early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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