[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (28 September 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 28 SEPTEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (21 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER)
Date     21    22    23    24    25    26    27
10cm    239   255   259   279   275   283   270
AFr       3     6    18     5    17    13 ( 10)
Aaus      3     7    27     8    24    24 ( 10)
T       159   171   148   130   150   147   160

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

21 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.

22 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.

23 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SN at 1137UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 15% to depressed 15%.

24 Sep 
Solar:        high, with an X2.6/2B at 1038UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% during local day otherwise 
      mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.

25 Sep 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SF at 0148UT, an M7.6/1N at 0440UT, 
	      and an M2/1N at 1027UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Significantly degraded due to PCA event.

26 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0258UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Complete absorption observed.

27 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/-- at 0855UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption easing second half of UT day.

2. FORECAST (28 SEPTEMBER - 04 OCTOBER)
Solar: Moderate to high

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible.
              Chance of minor storm conditions on 29 Sep.

Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 29-Sep,  
              otherwise MUFs near to above normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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