[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (25 May 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 25 MAY 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (18 MAY - 24 MAY)
Date     18    19    20    21    22    23    24
10cm    138   141   142   150   152   159   170
AFr      11    10     6     3     8     8 (  8)
Aaus      5     6     3     2     5     6 (  5)
T       104   113   108   111   112   123   121

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

18 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  near predicted monthly values all sites.

19 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 May 
Solar:        high, with an M6.4 at 0603UT, and an M1 at 0920UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  near predicted monthly values all sites.

23 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

24 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/1N at 1944UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

2. FORECAST (25 MAY - 31 MAY)
Solar: Moderate. Recurrence patterns in 10.7cm flux suggests a
       rising trend in flux values and a possible increase in
       solar activity.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible
              25 May due to coronal hole effects. Active to minor storm 
              conditions are expected during second half of 27 May and 
              first half of 28 May, due to M1/CME on 24 May.

Frequencies:  Degraded local night hours 25 May. Mildy depressed after 
local dawn on 27/28 May, otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible 
during week.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060