[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 May 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 MAY 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (27 APRIL - 03 MAY)
Date     27    28    29    30    01    02    03
10cm    191   188   192   188   210   176   172
AFr       3    34    11     1     3     4 (  8)
Aaus      4    24    10     1     2     6 (  7)
T       132   136   137   136   128   136   136

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1915UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

29 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.

30 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


01 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 1917UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

02 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0040UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

03 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


COMMENT:Disturbance observed on 28 April following sudden
impulse at 28/0520UT. The solar origin of this activity was 
an M7 flare on 26 April. The M7 came from solar region 9433 the
return of 9393. 9433 has since declined and rotated off the solar 
disk. A previously active solar region (9415) in the Sun's 
southern hemisphere has failed to return to the solar disk, so 
decreased solar activity is generally expected this week.


2. FORECAST (04 MAY - 10 MAY)
Solar: Low to Moderate.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible 05 May.

Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 06-May,  otherwise 
	      MUFs near normal. 

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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