[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 March 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 MARCH 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (23 MARCH - 29 MARCH)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    180   219   217   264   273   274   262
AFr      17     6     5     2    16    19 ( 20)
Aaus     21    12     4     4    20    27 ( 13)
T       131    88   128   155   149   147   175

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Mar 
Solar: moderate, with an M1/SF at 0138UT, an M1/2N at 1955UT, and an
       M1/1F at 2318UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values.

25 Mar 
Solar: moderate, with an M2/2N at 0424UT, and an M2/1N at 1116UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to enhanced by 15%.

26 Mar 
Solar: moderate, with an M2/1N at 0239UT, and an M2/1F at 1326UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

27 Mar 
Solar: moderate, with an M2/1N at 1630UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Mar 
Solar: high, with an M1/SF at 0158UT, an M1/SN at 0947UT, an M4/SF at
1240UT, an M1/1F at 1909UT, an M1/1N at 2247UT, and an M2/SN at 2330UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


29 Mar 
Solar: high, with an M2.1 at 0257UT , an X1.7 at 1016UT, 
an  M1.7 at 1419UT , an M1.4 at 1435UT , an M1.5 at 1459UT, 
an  M1.2 at 1527UT , and an   M1.2 at 2102UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Commnet: A proton event associated with the X1 flare began
	 1715UT.
 
2. FORECAST (30 MARCH - 05 APRIL)
Solar:    Moderate to high. A large solar region in 
          currently just in the north-western quadrant
          of the solar disk and appears to be still growing.
          Further flares/mass ejections expected.

Geomagnetic:  Storm levels expected 30-31 Mar due to recent
          flare/mass ejection events. Field then expected
          to decline in activity. There is a good chance
          for further CME related disturbances this week.

Frequencies:  Depressed and degraded MUFs expected 31 Mar-01 Apr.
          Proton event in progress effecting polar HF circuits,
          expected to contine 30 Mar.
          MUFs have recently being enhanced possibly due to strong
          background solar flux. Frequent shortwave fadeouts 
          expected this week. If conditions are not further 
          dirsturbed higher than normal frequencies may be available
          after 01 Apr.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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