[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 March 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 MARCH 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (02 MARCH - 08 MARCH)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm    130   140   141   156   158   177   167
AFr       6    14    16    19     4     9 (  6)
Aaus      9    11    17    11     5     7 (  7)
T       142   148   146   136   154   147   144

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


03 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


04 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


05 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.


06 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


07 Mar 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


08 Mar 
Solar:        high, with an  M5/1B at 1118UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (09 MARCH - 15 MARCH)
Solar:        Low to moderate, SWFs possible.

Geomagnetic:  Quiet, chance of unsettled periods on the 11 MAR due to
	      possible arrival of a shock associated with M5 flare/CME
	      observed on 8 MAR.

Frequencies:  Near monthly predicted values, chance of mild depressions
	      on 11 MAR following the possible arrival of a shock.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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