[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 Januray 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 05 JANUARY 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (29 DECEMBER - 04 JANUARY)
Date     29    30    31    01    02    03    04
10cm    182   182   170   171   176   170   175
AFr       6     4     1     2     2     7 ( 12)
Aaus      9     4     3     4     5    10 ( 14)
T       149   167   173   181   153   164   145

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

29 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0223UT, and an M1/1F at 1848UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


30 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


31 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


01 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


02 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


03 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


04 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/-- at 2355UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (05 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY)
Solar:        Moderate.
              A solar region that produced the M1 event
              on 04 Jan is rotating onto the disk.

Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 5 Jan, then quiet.
              Recurrence suggests that quiet gemagnetic
              conditions can be expected.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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