[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (31 August 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 31 AUGUST 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (24 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST)
Date     24    25    26    27    28    29    30
10cm    175   199   190   192   199   197   199
AFr       5    10     9    14     6     5 ( 10)
Aaus      2     5     9    11     8     5 ( 10)
T       113   108   124   128   137   120   113

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

24 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0913UT, an M1 at 2254UT,
              and an M3/1N at 0017UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 60% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.


25 Aug 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SF at 0928UT, an X5.3/3B at 1645UT,
              an M1/SF at 1956UT, and an M3/SF at 0017UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 45% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


26 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1306UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


27 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0638UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


28 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0012UT, an M1/SF at 0840UT,
              and an M1/1F at 1611UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


29 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0523UT, and an 
              M1/1F at 1253UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


30 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/2N at 1757UT , and an 
              M3/SF at 2038UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (31 AUGUST - 06 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 01-Sep, mildy depressed 
              after  local dawn on 02-Sep,  otherwise MUFs near normal. 
              SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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