[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (03 August 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 03 AUGUST 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (27 JULY - 02 AUGUST)
Date     27    28    29    30    31    01    02
10cm    121   116   117   115   117   120   121
AFr       8     2     5     8    20    10 (  8)
Aaus      5     1     4     4    19    13 (  6)
T       102   103    97   102   119    94    95

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


28 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


29 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


30 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


31 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption and spread observed.


01 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


02 Aug 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


COMMENT: Mild disturbance observed on 31 July due to coronal hole.
 
2. FORECAST (03 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST)
Solar: Low to moderate. Isolated M class flaring now possible
       as solar region in north-east quadrant of solar disk shows growth.

Geomagnetic:  Active conditions expected 03 August due to recent
       solar filament eruptions. Active period possible 08 Aug,
       based on recurrence. Otherwise quiet to unsettled.

Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 03-04 Aug,  otherwise 
MUFs near normal. Isolated SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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