[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 April 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 APRIL 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (06 APRIL - 12 APRIL)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    192   180   169   165   170   160   149
AFr      11    17    33    17     7    69 ( 45)
Aaus     12    18    33    15     8    51 ( 25)
T       153   155   152   131   131   120    70

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an X5.6/SF at 1921UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

07 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

08 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an M7.9/2B at 1534UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% at the start of the UT day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values afterwards,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an X2.3/3B at 0526UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

11 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0031UT, and an M2/1F at 1326UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet until sudden commencement at 1440UT then 
              severe storm. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 55% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.

12 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an  X2/-- at 1028UT , and an  M1/1N at 0304UT
Geomagnetic:  Minor storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      PCA.
 
2. FORECAST (13 APRIL - 19 APRIL)
Solar:        Moderate to high declining to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Storm conditions expected 14,15 April

Frequencies:  Depressions expected 14,16 April and periods of PCA
	      are possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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