[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (06 April 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 APRIL 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (30 MARCH - 05 APRIL)
Date     30    31    01    02    03    04    05
10cm    257   246   258   228   223   205   210
AFr       8   115    26    12     5    12 ( 15)
Aaus     10   113    25    16     6    17 ( 12)
T       184   171    89   148   164   162   168

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

30 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0515UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F and occasional absorption observed.


31 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 1112UT
Geomagnetic:  Sever storm levels. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and strong absorption observed.


01 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an M5.5 at 1217UT, an M4/1F at 1949UT, 
              and an M1 at 2301UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Absorption and spread F observed.


02 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an M3/SF at 0028UT, an M1/SF at 0952UT, 
              an X1.4/1B at 1014UT, an X1.1 at 1136UT, and an X17.1 at 2151UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


03 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an X1.2/1N at 0357UT, an M2/2F at 1234UT, 
              and an M1 at 2351UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near to 25% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near to 25% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
      Absortption observed.


04 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1027UT, an M1/SF at 1159UT, 
              an M2 at 1222UT, and an M1 at 2351UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


05 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an M3.1 at 0226UT , an M1.2 at 0834UT , 
              an M8.4 at 0924UT , and an M5.1 at 1727UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (06 APRIL - 12 APRIL)
Solar:        Moderate to high, region 9415 magnetically complex chance
	      of further flares probable. Proton fluxes are expected to
	      remain above the event threshold for the 6 Apr.

Geomagnetic:  Unsettled for 6-7 Apr, possibly active with a chance of minor
	      periods for the 8 Apr, disturbed conditions may be expected
	      for the rest of forecast period if region 9415 flares/CMEs
	      continue.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values for 6-7 Apr. Chance of 
	      depressed MUFs for 8 Apr due to anticipated CME induced
	      geomagnetic active conditions. Futher depressed conditions
	      may be expected for the rest of the forecasting period
	      if futher flares/CMEs eventuate. PCA will presists over
	      the 6 of Apr.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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