[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 November 00)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 NOVEMBER 2000, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (03 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    199   195   186   178   180   173   166
AFr       5    17     8    28    29    14 ( 12)
Aaus      2    18    13    33    23    30 ( 12)
T       177   156   155   126    55   139   148

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


04 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


05 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Absorption observed 3 to 13 UT.


06 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
      Spread F observed southern region sites.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Absorption and Spread F observed.


07 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1207UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


08 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M1 at 0958UT, an M2/SF at 1636UT, and
	      an M7.4/1F at 2328UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to minor storm. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      up to 15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.


09 Nov 
Solar:        moderate with an M1/-- at 0314UT , and
	      an M1/SF at 1613UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Severe absorbtion observed throughout the day.

 
2. FORECAST (10 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  10 Nov: Mostly unsettled.
              11-13 Nov: Disturbed conditions are expected due
	      to the influence of a large coronal hole,
	      the effect possibly being compounded with the
	      arrival of shock associated with CME observed
              together with an M7 proton flare on the 8 NOV.
	      Storm periods possible for this period.
	      14-16 Nov: Returning to mostly unsettled.

Frequencies:  10 Nov: Mostly normal for low-mid lats with high
	      levels of absorbtion for high lats.
              11-13 Nov: High lats still suffering high absorbtion
	      and very poor HF conditions, with low-mid lats
	      becoming mildly degraded.
	      14-16 Nov: Conditions returning to normal for all
	      latitudes.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.


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