[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (17 February 16) issued 0154 UT on 17 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 17 12:54:57 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 17 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (10 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Date T index Conditions
10 Feb 41 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
11 Feb 76 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
12 Feb 59 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
13 Feb 79 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
14 Feb 82 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
15 Feb 68 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
16 Feb 80 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 50
2. FORECAST (17 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY)
MUFS: Depressions of ~30% possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions for
17Feb-18Feb. Slow ionospheric recovering expected to begin on 19Feb.
MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values in the latter
half of the forecast week.
Propagation conditions: Fair on 18 Feb.
Fair-Poor on 17 Feb.
Otherwise normal.
SWFs possible on 17Feb-18Feb.
T index: 50
IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 16-17 Feb. IPS HF Communications Warning 11
was issued on 17 February and is current for 17-18 Feb.
3. OUTLOOK (24 FEBRUARY - 25 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
15 Mar
PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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