[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (21 November 12) issued 0057 UT on 21 Nov 2012

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 21 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 Nov   95      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

15 Nov   53      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Nov  108      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Nov   99      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Nov  125      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Nov  133      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-05 UT. No data 13-20 UT. Enhanced
      15-40% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-45% 00-16, 23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
      times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 20-35% 10-19 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
      times. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced during local day.
      Enhanced to 25% during local night. Near predicted monthly values
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

20 Nov  127      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30% 16-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-45% 00-15 UT, then near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% enhancements 08-19 UT
      at Darwin. Enhancements of 10-20% 00-09 UT, enhanced 25-45%
      10-19 UT, then near predicted monthly values at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Most larger
      enhancements occurring 12-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere; near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

2. FORECAST (21 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Possible depressions
to 20% on 24 Nov.

Propagation conditions:
Mostly normal, fair-poor on 24 Nov. SWFs likely 21-27 Nov.

T index: 100

IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 20 November and 
is current for 21-23 Nov (SWFs).

3. OUTLOOK (28 NOVEMBER - 28 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No significant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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