[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (18 July 12) issued 0153 UT on 18 Jul 2012

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 18 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (11 JULY - 17 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
11 Jul   68      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed 30% 14-21UT. Strong sporadic-E around
      local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed to 30% 09-10, 14-16, 23UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Darwin depressed to 30% 15-18UT. Periods of 
      sporadic-E around local dawn. Other stations
      depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally poor ionospheric support over the 
      UT day.

12 Jul   77      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% at times during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
      during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Hobart spread-F 10-12 and 16-21UT. Sporadic-E
      12-15UT. Perth mild spread-F local dawn. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionospheric support over the UT day.

13 Jul   69      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% 07-210UT.
      Depressed by 30% 18-22UT. Sporadic-E observed
      19-20UT with depressions to 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed to 30% 11-13, 17UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day
      with occasional enhancements to 30%.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Spread-F 12-20UT at Townsville. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionospheric support over the UT day.

14 Jul   56      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Sporadic-E 18-20UT at Brisbane. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
      Minor absorption observed after 17UT due to 
      elevated proton fluxes.

15 Jul   87      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
      Depressed 15% 14-19UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night with periods
      of spread-F conditions.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable depressions to 15% during local day.
      Variable enhancements to 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support with occasional MUF
      enhancements.

16 Jul   23      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.     
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.

17 Jul   38      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

2. FORECAST (18 JULY - 24 JULY) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.

Propagation conditions: Normal to Fair 18-20 Jul. Otherwise Normal. 
SWFs probable early in week.

T index: 77

3. OUTLOOK (25 JULY - 24 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
28-31 Jul, 23-27 Aug

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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