[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (28 September 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (21 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
21 Sep   78      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      enhancements to 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with mostly enhanced
      MUFs to 30% after about 15 UT. Night spread F observed
      at Hobart and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

22 Sep   82      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
      11-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
      04-10 and 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
      11-16 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Some night
      spread F observed at Canberra and Hobart. No Learmonth
      data 03-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

23 Sep   86      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      30%, 00, 08-18 UT, and depressions to 24% 20-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      30%, 02-06 and 18-23 UT, and enhancements to 55%,
      07-10 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      25%, 12-15 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
      from about 10 UT onward.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      Depressions to 35% at Mawson 00-02 UT.

24 Sep   88      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

25 Sep   93      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      12-17 UT. No data 18-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 12-17UT.
      Enhanced to 30% 05-10 and 19-22UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      16-18UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 12-15 UT at
      Darwin and 00-01, 09-13, 21-23UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere at high latitudes. Mostly near predicted
      monthly values to 40% enhanced. Proton event in progress,
      increased absorption observed.

26 Sep   88      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

27 Sep   59      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionosphere due to proton event

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62
2. FORECAST (28 SEPTEMBER - 04 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions: Normal. SWFs possible.
T index:  62

3. OUTLOOK (05 OCTOBER - 04 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
09-Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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