[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (02 March 11)

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 2 14:30:03 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/0200Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (23 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH)
Date   T index   Conditions        
23 Feb   27      Normal            
MUFS:
   Note: data available only for time periods stated below.
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-03 UT. Depressed to
      20% 04, 21-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-09, 15-16, 18-23 UT.
      No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-04 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values 05-10, 17, 22-23 UT, depressions to 25%
      11-16 UT at Brisbane. Near predicted monthly values at
      Canberra and Sydney 05-23 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at Hobart 05-09 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values 22-23 UT at Norfolk Is. and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 22 UT with
      depressions to 25% 04 UT at Casey and Mawson.

24 Feb   24      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      09-11 UT. Depressed 20% at 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      45% 04-06 UT then depressions to 35% 07-14, 17 and
      19-23 UT. Night spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      00-03 and to 35% 10-18 UT. Night spread F observed at
      Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

25 Feb   30      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      35% 06-15 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-03, 21-22 UT. Enhanced
      50% at 04 UT. Depressed to 25% 10, 20 UT. No data at
      other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 45%
      16-19 UT. Sporadic E observed 07-08 and 11 UT. No
      Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      02-04 UT at Brisbane,r and Norfolk Is. Enhancements
      to 35% 06-09 UT and depressions to 30% 10-17 UT at
      all stations. Spread F observed at Hobart 12-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      Occasional depressions to 30% 09-19 UT at Macquarie
      Is. and Casey.

26 Feb   38      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 22 UT. Enhanced to
      40% 05, 17-18 UT. No data at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      02-03, 19 UT. Enhanced to 35% 07-17 UT. No Townsville
      data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% 12-15
      UT at Brisbane, 20-21 UT at Norfolk Is. Enhanced to
      30% 07-10 UT at all stations. Spread F observed at
      Hobart 14-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      10-14, 18-20 UT at Macquarie Is. and Scott Base, and
      20-21 UT Casey and Mawson.

27 Feb   27      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 25% 10,
      14-16, 22-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced to 50% 00-06 UT, depressed to 30% 08-19 UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      09-13 UT, 16 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      11-14, 23 UT at Brisbane, 10-14, 17-18 UT at Norfolk
      Is., 00, 11-13 UT at Canberra and Sydney, 03-07 UT at
      Perth and 00-16 UT at Hobart. Spread F observed 12-19
      UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25%.

28 Feb   36      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Mar   44      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  41
2. FORECAST (02 MARCH - 08 MARCH) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions: Normal. No SWFs
T index:   20
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 2 March and is current
for interval  2-3 March. 
3. OUTLOOK (09 MARCH - 08 APRIL)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No signficant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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