[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (12 January 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/0200Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (05 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
05 Jan   20      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Jan   31      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Jan   37      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jan   25      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

09 Jan   17      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Jan   24      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jan   13      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37
2. FORECAST (12 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY) 
MUFS: Depressed MUF periods of ~20% for mid to low latitudes 
for the forecast week with possible disturbed conditions for 
high latitudes. These conditions due to increase geomagentic
activity from the previous weeks coronal hole and the arrival
of a new coronal hole high speed solar wind stream on 14Jan. 
Otherise near predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Mostly Normal with possible disturbed periods
for mid to high latitudes in the latter half of the week. No SWFs 
expected.

T index:  37

3. OUTLOOK (19 JANUARY - 18 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No signficant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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