[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (16 February 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/0200Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (09 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Feb   40      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Feb   38      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Feb   36      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Feb   42      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Feb   41      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Feb   51      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Feb   46      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38
2. FORECAST (16 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: Depressed by 10%-30% on 17Feb-19Feb due to elevated
geomagnetic activity with disturbed periods for high and 
possibly mid latitudes. Otherwise mostly normal conditions 
with possible MUF depressions of 15% in the latter half of 
the forecast week.

Propagation conditions: Mostly normal ionospheric support
for 16Feb. Fair-Poor conditions for 17Feb-19Feb wth otherwise
normal conditions from 20Feb. Further SWF's likely due to
increased solar activity. 

T index:  38

3. OUTLOOK (23 FEBRUARY - 25 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
Possible degraded HF conditions between 03Mar-05Mar and 
13Mar-16Mar.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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