[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (16 December 09)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/0200Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (09 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Dec  -39      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Dec  -37      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Dec  -38      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

12 Dec  -33      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Dec  -26      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Dec  -24      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      14-19 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% with depressions to 40% 06-16 UT.
      Night spread F observed. Sporadic E observed 06-09
      UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed during
      the day with depressions to 30% at night. Sporadic E
      observed at times between 08 and 23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
      to 30% at times. Sporadic E observed mostly from
      00-02, 07-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

15 Dec  -24      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted with depressions to 40% at times 00-03,
      10-11, 17 and 20-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin: depressions to 40% 00-18 UT then near
      predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed around
      10-16 UT and some early morning spread F. Townsville:
      depressions to 25% 00-06 UT then near predicted
      monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Norfolk Is: depressions to 30% 00-17 UT then near
      predicted. Some sporadic E 00-03, 15-23 UT. Brisbane:
      near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      14-18 UT. Sporadic E observed 00-12 UT, much of the
      time blanketing. Canberra/Sydney: near predicted
      monthly values with depressions to 25% 05-07, 11-15
      UT. Sporadic E blanketing 00-04 UT and at Sydney 09-10
      UT. Hobart: Near predicted monthly values with
      depressions to 25% 01-07 and 12-17 UT. Sporadic E
      observed 00-19 UT. Christchurch: near predicted
      monthly values with depressions to 20% 04-13 UT.
      Blanketing sporadic E 01-02 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Sporadic E observed 09-16 UT at Macquarie Is.,
      blanketing at times, and at Casey 15-17 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

2. FORECAST (16 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed at times.
Propagation conditions: Fair to normal. No SWFs. Sporadic E may
degrade/disrupt skywave communications at times.
T index: -15

3. OUTLOOK (23 DECEMBER - 22 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: degraded communications
likely during this period if solar activity remains low.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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