[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (14 December 05)

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 14 12:17:08 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/0200Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (07 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Dec   20      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Dec   29      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Dec   18      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Dec   30      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

11 Dec   -7      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

12 Dec  -24      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Dec    1      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18
2. FORECAST (14 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: MUF's are expected to be near predicted monthly
values. Previous weeks HF disturbances and lower MUF's
due to enhanced geomagnetic activity from coronal hole
effects that have subsided.

Propagation conditions: Normal HF conditions are expected.
No large or active solar regions are currently on disc. No
SWFs expected due to low solar activity.

T index:   25

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on
11 December and is current for interval  11-14 December. 
3. OUTLOOK (21 DECEMBER - 20 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
27-Dec to 30-Dec, 5-Jan to 7-Jan.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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