[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (01 September 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (25 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
25 Aug   50      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


26 Aug   56      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


27 Aug   57      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


28 Aug   43      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


29 Aug   42      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


30 Aug   41      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


31 Aug    4      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39
2. FORECAST (01 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: Mildy depressed after local dawn on 01-Sep and on 03-Sep, 
otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible early in week.

Propagation conditions: Fair 01-Sep Fair 03-Sep , otherwise normal.
SWfs possible early in week.

T index:   40

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 31 August
and is current for interval 31 August to 1 September. 
3. OUTLOOK (08 SEPTEMBER - 08 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:

15-Sep to 19-Sep, 26Sep to 27Sep, 30-Sep, 06-Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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