[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (10 November 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/0200Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (03 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
03 Nov   81      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


04 Nov   75      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


05 Nov   63      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


06 Nov   77      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


07 Nov   56      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


08 Nov   78      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


09 Nov   18      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35
2. FORECAST (10 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 30% on 10-Nov, depressed 30% on 11-Nov,
depressed 20 to 30% on 12-Nov. Possible depressions 
late in the week if continued flare activity from region 
696 geomagnetic storm levels persist. Otherwise MUFs near
normal. SWFs probable early in week.

Propagation conditions: Poor 10-Nov Poor 11-Nov Fair-Poor 12-Nov,
otherwise normal. SWfs probable early in week.

T index:   35
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 10 November
and is current for interval  10-11 November. 
3. OUTLOOK (17 NOVEMBER - 17 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
04-Dec to 07-Dec.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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