[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (21 July 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/0200Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (14 JULY - 20 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 Jul   57      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near perdicted monthly values to enhanced upto 35%
      with periods of significant degradations. 

15 Jul   64      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 45% with periods of 
      significant degradations. 

16 Jul   64      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% with periods of significant
      degradations.

17 Jul   75      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% with periods of strong degradations.

18 Jul   71      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 50% with periods of significant 
      degradations.

19 Jul   69      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 60% with periods of significant
      degradations.

20 Jul   70      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% with periods of strong degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39
2. FORECAST (21 JULY - 27 JULY) 
MUFS: Mildy depressed on 23-Jul, Due to frequently expected 
	flares MUFs may show degradations on any day during this 
	period. Also SWFs may be observed at any time throughout 
	this period. 
Propagation conditions: Fair 23-Jul. Degradations may be observed 
	at any time due to frequently expected flares throughout 
	this period.
T index:   60
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 19 July and 
is current for interval  20-22 July (SWFs) . 
3. OUTLOOK (28 JULY - 27 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 28 to 29 July, 07 to 
	08 August, 19 August, 21 to 22 August, 24 to 25 August.
No signficant degraded periods expected: 30 July to 06 August, 10 to 
	11 August, 14 August, 17 to 18 August, 20 August, 26 to 
	27 August

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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