[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (19 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/0200Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (12 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Nov   19      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


13 Nov   27      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.


14 Nov   -1      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.


15 Nov   35      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values during 
      local day, briefly enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of degradation over the UT day. 


16 Nov   40      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values over 
      the UT day, with extended periods of disturbance.


17 Nov   50      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with localised extended periods of disturbance.


18 Nov   53      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with extended local periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52
2. FORECAST (19 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: Possibile mild depressions 19-20 Nov, anticipated depressions 
      21-22 Nov due to CME induced shock, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
      SWFs probable at times throughout the week.

Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor 20-22 Nov, Fair-Poor 24-25-Nov, 
			otherwise normal. SWfs probable at times
			throughout the week.

T index:   55
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on 18 November 
	 and is current for interval  19-21 November (SWFs). Previous
	 large M to X-class flare producing regions 486 and 488 are 
	 due to return about 19 Nov.
3. OUTLOOK (26 NOVEMBER - 26 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
26 to 27 Nov, 06 to 15 Dec, 21 to 26 Dec.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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