[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (21 May 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/0200Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (14 MAY - 20 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 May   54      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance observed over 
      the UT day.


15 May   64      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 5-15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


16 May   70      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


17 May   72      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


18 May   63      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local night/dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 10-30% above predicted monthly values 
      with widespread spread-F conditions observed.


19 May   83      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods of
      disturbance.


20 May   82      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Minor depression during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods of
      disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72
2. FORECAST (21 MAY - 27 MAY) 
MUFS: Mildy depressed after local dawn at low to mid latitudes 
on 24-27 May, otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible.
Propagation conditions: Fair 24-27 May, otherwise normal. Expect 
extended periods of disturbance at high latitudes. SWFs possible.
T index:   85

3. OUTLOOK (28 MAY - 27 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
28-May to 29-May,02-Jun to 12-Jun,16-Jun to 25-Jun.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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