[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (25 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/0200Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (18 JUNE - 24 JUNE)
Date   T index   Conditions        
18 Jun   74      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

19 Jun   62      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-20% local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

20 Jun   62      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values 
      during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15%  to near normal.

21 Jun   72      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Briefly depressed by 15% after local dawn,
      then mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near normal.

22 Jun   67      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values, 
      some spread F observed,

23 Jun   67      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.

24 Jun   92      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68
2. FORECAST (25 JUNE - 01 JULY) 
MUFS: near predicted monthly values early in week, then mild depressions. 
15% depressions probable for southern Aus/NZ region MUFS only after 
28 Jun due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from coronal hole wind 
stream.  Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted 
monthly values.
Propagation conditions: Normal 25-27 Jun,  then Fair 28-01 July (occasionally poor)

T index:   75 25-27 June 
	   55 28 June - 01 Jul (southern Aus region only)

COMMENT: A previously very flare active solar region is due back
to the eastern solar limb on 27 Jun. Shortwave fadeout activity
may be experienced late in forecast week if this region returns.
An extended period of elevated solar wind conditions and corresponding
degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes is expected (start 28 Jun) 
from a large solar coronal hole currently located in the eastern solar 
hemisphere.
3. OUTLOOK (02 JULY - 01 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
02-Jul to 08-Jul,11-Jul to 23-Jul,26-Jul to 31-Jul.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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