[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (17 December 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/0200Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (10 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
10 Dec   42      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day.

11 Dec    2      Fair              
MUFS:
15 to 30% below predicted monthly values

12 Dec   30      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night and after 
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 10-20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with extended periods of disturbance.

13 Dec   53      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values early in the UT day.
      Depressed 15% later in UT day. Blanketing sporadic
      E observed.

14 Dec   52      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


15 Dec   31      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Dec   43      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Generally lower than normal MUFs observed south
	 Aus/NZ region this week. Very depressed conditions 
	 were observed on 11 Dec. Degraded conditions due to
	 broad coronal hole, producing an extended period 
	 of fast solar wind and southward interplanetary 
	 magnetic field conditions.
         

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50
2. FORECAST (17 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 18-Dec. Depressed 15% on 
19-21Dec southern Aus/NZ region, then near predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions: Fair 19-21 Dec,  otherwise normal. Chance for
isolated minor SWFs.
T index:   50
           20 southern Aus/NZ region 20-21 Dec.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December and 
is current for interval  19-20 December. The Earth is expected to enter
another coronal hole high speed wind stream late 18/19 Dec. This hole has
limited longitudinal extent and degraded southern Aus/NZ HF conditions are 
expected to be relatively brief, with returning normal by end 21 Dec.
Note that northern Aus region MUFs are expecte dto remain near predicted
monthly values.
3. OUTLOOK (24 DECEMBER - 23 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
01-Jan to 11-Jan,13-Jan to 20-Jan.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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