[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 August 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Aug   84      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 115% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


14 Aug   85      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


15 Aug   89      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 30% early in UT day.


16 Aug   93      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


17 Aug   71      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


18 Aug   96      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30%.


19 Aug   19      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      otherwise depressed by 10-20% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values. 


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60
2. FORECAST (20 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST) 
MUFS: 
     20 Aug: Depressed 15-30% at times, otherwise returning to
	     near predicted monthly values.
     21 Aug: Depressed up to 15% at times, otherwise near
             predicted monthly values.
     22 Aug: Mostly near predicted monthly values.
  23-26 Aug: Depressed 10-20% at times, otherwise near
             predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions: 
     20 Aug: Poor-normal
     21 Aug: Fair-normal
     22 Aug: Normal
  23-26 Aug: Normal-fair
T index: 
     20 Aug: 55
     21 Aug: 65
     22 Aug: 75
  23-26 Aug: 65
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 20 August
and is current for 20 August only. 
3. OUTLOOK (27 AUGUST - 26 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 27 Aug - 1 Sept, 19-26 Sept.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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