[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 September 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (04 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Sep  148      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


05 Sep  137      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


06 Sep  141      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption observed later in day.


07 Sep  136      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
      Spread F observed.


08 Sep  105      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F and absorption observed.


09 Sep  149      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


10 Sep  146      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30%, becoming depressed 15%
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96
2. FORECAST (11 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: mildy depressed after local dawn on 11-12 Sep, 
souther Aus/NZ region only. Northern Aus. MUfs
currently enhanced 15-20%. Southern region MUfs expected 
to return to enhanced conditions second half of week.

SWFs probable all week.

Propagation conditions: Fair 11-12Sep, otherwise normal. 
T index:  135
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 10 
September and is current for interval  10-12 September (SWFs) . 
3. OUTLOOK (18 SEPTEMBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Mildly Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
01-Oct,04-Oct to 05-Oct,09-Oct to 11-Oct.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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