[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (16 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/0200Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (09 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Oct  132      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 5-15% at times, otherwise near predicted 
      monthly values.


10 Oct  120      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30% first half of the UT day.
      Near predicted monthly values later. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 10-30% at times.


11 Oct  140      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 20-30% at times, otherwise near predicted monthly values.


12 Oct  149      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 30% above predicted monthly values


13 Oct  153      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


14 Oct  141      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% over UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 10-20% during first half UT day.
      Slightly below predicted monthly values second half UT
      day.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Isolated depressions of 10-30%.


15 Oct   93      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% below predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94
2. FORECAST (16 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Depressed 20% mid to high latitudes after local dawn on 16-17 Oct, 
SWFs possible early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair 16-18 Oct, otherwise normal. 
SWfs possible early in week.
T index:  120

3. OUTLOOK (23 OCTOBER - 22 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
29-Oct to 04-Nov, 10-Nov.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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