[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (06 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/0200Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (30 OCTOBER - 05 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
30 Oct  145      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

31 Oct  127      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

01 Nov  103      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

02 Nov  173      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

03 Nov  113      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted montly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.

04 Nov  100      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F and absorption observed.

05 Nov  132      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed southern region Aus/NZ
due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91
2. FORECAST (06 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: near to 15% above normal. SWFs probable early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair 06 Nov , otherwise normal. 
T index:  130

3. OUTLOOK (13 NOVEMBER - 13 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
20-Nov to 21-Nov,23-Nov to 03-Dec,07-Dec.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060