[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 March 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 MARCH - 19 MARCH)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Mar  174      Normal            
MUFS:
MUFS:
15 to 45% above predicted monthly values

14 Mar  180      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 45% above predicted monthly values

15 Mar  171      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 45% above predicted monthly values

16 Mar  179      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 45% above predicted monthly values

17 Mar  182      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 40% above predicted monthly values

18 Mar  186      Fair-Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 40% above predicted monthly values

19 Mar  179      Fair-Normal            
MUFS:
slightly above predicted monthly values

COMMENT:Mild degradation observed 18-19 Mar due to CME 
observed late on 15/early 16 Mar. Effects of CME reduced due to 
predominately northward interplanetary magnetic field post 
shock.  Proton event observed beginning at 1310UT 18/03, 
ending at 2210UT 19/03. increased absorption observed at 
high latitudes.

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111
2. FORECAST (20 MARCH - 26 MARCH) 
MUFS: mostly near to 20% above predicted monthly values. 
Mild degradation expected late 20-22 Mar due to recent mass
ejection(s) activity. 
Propagation conditions: Fair late 20-22 Mar, otherwise normal. 
SWFs possible.
T index:  160

3. OUTLOOK (27 MARCH - 26 APRIL)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
27-28 Mar
30 Mar-02 Apr 
08 Apr

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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