[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (26 September 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (19 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
19 Sep  157      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


20 Sep  164      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


21 Sep  159      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


22 Sep  171      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


23 Sep  148      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 15% to depressed 15%.


24 Sep  130      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% during local day otherwise 
      mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.


25 Sep  150      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Significantly degraded due to PCA event.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108
2. FORECAST (26 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Depressed 20-40% on 26-Sep, depressed 15% on 27-Sep,
      then recovering to near predicted monthly values
      for most of week. SWFs probable early in week.
Propagation conditions: Poor 26-Sep, Fair-Poor 27-Sep, otherwise normal.
                        SWfs probable early in week.
T index:  90 for 26-27 Sept.
	  120 for remainder of week.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 25 September and
         is current for interval  26-27 September. 
3. OUTLOOK (03 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 19-31 Oct.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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