[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (03 October 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/0200Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (26 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
26 Sep  147      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Complete absorption observed.

27 Sep  160      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption easing second half of UT day.

28 Sep  168      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 60% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

29 Sep  160      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

30 Sep  133      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.

01 Oct  125      Fair-Poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

02 Oct  138      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed first half of day.
      Enhanced by 20% during second half of day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106
2. FORECAST (03 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: depressed 20 to 30% on 03-Oct, depressed 15% briefly after local 
dawn on 04-Oct, southern region Aus/NZ. Northern region Aus MUFs
remain near normal. MUFs near normal on other days. SWFs probable 
early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair 03-Oct Fair-Normal 04-Oct, otherwise normal. 
T index:  80 03 Oct southern region Aus
         140 03 Oct northern region Aus
         130 rest of week.
3. OUTLOOK (10 OCTOBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
10-Oct,20-Oct,23-Oct,26-Oct,28-Oct,06-Nov.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060