[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (28 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/0200Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (21 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
21 Nov  186      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Nov  169      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Nov  119      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed for much of the UT day.

24 Nov   73      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

25 Nov   66      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      10-15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

26 Nov  152      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

27 Nov  185      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Ehanced by 15%.


COMMENT:Strongly distrubed conditions observed 24-25 Nov.
Solar activity may increase this week due to new solar
regions rotating onto the solar disk, and a region currently
in the north-east quadrant of the solar disk.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
2. FORECAST (28 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER) 
MUFS: near to 15% above normal. SWFs probable.
Propagation conditions: Fair 28 Nov, 03-04 Dec, otherwise normal. 
T index:  150
3. OUTLOOK (05 DECEMBER - 04 JANUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
14-Dec to 16-Dec,21-Dec to 23-Dec,25-Dec,30-Dec to 01-Jan.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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