[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (07 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/0200Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (31 OCTOBER - 06 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
31 Oct  186      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Some spred F observed.

01 Nov  157      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed. 

02 Nov  150      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

03 Nov  183      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

04 Nov  189      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Complete absorption observed from 18UT.

05 Nov  161      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption due to PCA.

06 Nov   90      Poor-fair         (STRONG DISTURBANCE)
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG/Northern Aus. Region:
      Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Recovering after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
2. FORECAST (07 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 20% southern region, enhanced 15% norther region on 07-Nov
as MUFs recover from activity on 06 Nov.  MUFs are then expected to 
return to near to 15% above normal. 
Propagation conditions: Poor-fair early gradually improving 07-Nov, 
otherwise normal. SWfs probable.
T index:  145
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 5 November and 
is current for interval  6-8 November (SWFs) . Strong disturbance 
observed 06 Nov. Polar region HF communications useless due to 
PCA (proton event) and strong geomagnetic activity. Several solar
regions remain flare capable, and there is a chance for CME
activity this week.
3. OUTLOOK (14 NOVEMBER - 14 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
16-Nov to 19-Nov,24-Nov to 26-Nov,05-Dec,13-Dec.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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