[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (18 September 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 SEPTEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (09 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 09 Sep   2333 3335   18     
 10 Sep   3224 3233   13     
 11 Sep   3413 2222   11    
 12 Sep   3332 3122   10    
 13 Sep   2332 1012    7    
 14 Sep   1221 2112    5    
 15 Sep   2111 1123    5    
 16 Sep   4244 6543   32    A weak (27nT) impulse was observed 
 in the IPS magnetomter data at 1339UT on 16 Sep.
 17 Sep   3455 6444   37    

*estimated from real time data

The period started with geomagnetic activity at quiet 
to active levels for the first three days due to a 
coronal hole effect.  The geomagnetic activity remained 
from quiet to unsettled for the next two days and at quiet 
levels on 14 and 15 September. The geomagnetic activity 
then went up and minor geomagnetic storm was observed on 
16 September due to the effect of another coronal hole 
and possibly due to the effect of a CME as indicated by 
the arrival of a weak impulse on 16 September. The coronal 
hole induced solar wind stream was further strengthened 
on 17 September, resulting in a further rise in the 
geomagnetic activity to major storm, and even severe storm 
for some time. The geomagnetic activity is expected to 
remain enhanced during the next three days. 

2. FORECAST (18 SEPTEMBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Disturbed Periods:18-26 Sept, 29 Sept to 02 Oct, 06-08 Oct, 13-18 Oct 

Best Quiet Periods:27 Sept, 03-05 Oct, 10-12 Oct 


PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

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