[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (29 May 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 MAY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (20 MAY - 28 MAY)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 20 May   2322 3222    9     
 21 May   2222 3444   15     
 22 May   4332 4333   17    
 23 May   2334 3423   16    
 24 May   2333 3443   17    
 25 May   3333 1322   11    
 26 May   4342 2123   13    
 27 May   3323 3354   19    
 28 May   4344 4434   24    

*estimated from real time data

Coronal hole high speed wind streams caused elevated background
geomagnetic actvivity for most of the past week. An active solar region
has produced to X class solar flares which were mass ejection
associated. Major storm periods are now expected 30 May due
to these mass ejections. Note that the region that produced the 
X flares remains flare/mass ejection capable. This region will be 
on-disk for the next five days. In addition, a large coronal hole 
is visible in the Sun's eastern solar hemisphere and is expected
to produce disturbed conditions from 01 Jun. This coronal hole
is large/broad and is expected to induce a long period of elevated
geomagnetic activity.

2. FORECAST (29 MAY - 28 JUNE)
Disturbed Periods: 
30-31 May Minor to Major storm.
01 - 10 Jun Mostly active.
17 - 23 Jun Mostly Active

Best Quiet Periods: 
12-16 Jun

PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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